Against a backdrop of political instability already rocking the region, Iraqi tensions continue to loom, posing more threats to Jordan. Rana Sabbagh-Gargour reports on the Kingdom’s latest strategy to keep the dangers at bay.

As the specter of civil war looms over Baghdad, Jordan is readying contingency plans to deal with more unrest that could seep through the border from the neighboring Anbar province, the center of anti-coalition sentiment in Iraq. This latest position is part of Jordan’s preparations for a worst-case scenario where Iraq slides into full-swing civil war and breaks up into three mini states, creating a majority Shiite Arab community in the south, a Kurdish one in the north (both rich in oil reserves), and an impoverished Sunni-led faction along the eastern flank. Anbar is the single most Sunni Arab-dominated province in Iraq, stretching along the Syrian and Jordanian borders. It includes Fallujah, and the provincial capital, Ramadi, both hotbeds for the Iraqi insurgency since U.S. forces toppled Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003.

Since then, many of the pro-Saddam tribes, which have lost power and economic prosperity, have offered safe-havens to many local and foreign operatives of the al-Qaeda network, which, until his death in a U.S. air raid in June, was led in Iraq by Jordanian fugitive Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. “In the event of Iraq falling apart, and this scenario is getting more likely by the day, its Arab neighbors will have to take action to safeguard their national security and interests,” said a senior Jordanian official, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The strategy entails deployment of troops along the eastern border to reinforce existing defenses and guard against terror threats and other humanitarian challenges, he told Jordan Business. “But Jordan is not contemplating the idea of sending Jordanian troops into Iraqi areas of the Anbar province,” he added. Jordan’s contingency plan is part of multiple strategies being quietly prepared by the Kingdom’s top decision-makers.

 The deployment of thousands of Jordanian armed forces and special operation troops will prevent an influx of over half a million Iraqis who might flee to Jordan in the event of an Iraqi split, putting more pressure on the Kingdom’s strained infrastructure, services and fragile demographic balance. Jordan is already hosting between 500,000 to one million Iraqi refugees seeking security and safety since the U.S.-led invasion of their country, and it cannot cope with more. Although they have contributed to a boom in the economy, their presence is feeding tension with many locals who complain that real estate and living costs have gone up, while their salaries remain the same.

One in three Jordanians lives below the poverty line. For weeks now, Jordan’s influential political salons, informal gatherings hosted at the homes of prominent politicians, have been awash with speculation that Jordan will send its army into the Anbar province to protect national interests if Iraq does indeed fragment. Many were quoting information leaked from a series of off-the-record working lunches hosted by His Majesty King Abdullah, with groups of Jordanian opinion-shapers in a new drive to build national consensus and supposedly widen the base of decision-making at home and abroad. At these meetings, Major General Mohammed Dahabi, the influential head of the General Intelligence Department (GID), has offered lengthy and detailed accounts of strategic threats facing Jordan, stretching from turbulence in Iraq, Palestine and now Lebanon, to a new Iranian-led axis of power, grouping Syria, along with Sunni Hamas in Palestine, and Shiite Hezbollah in Lebanon.

These contingency plans have caused some unease in Iraqi government circles, coming just two months after Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, a Shiite, formed a national unity government that remains committed in public to the controversial U.S.-sponsored constitution that preserves Iraq’s unity, but is fiercely opposed by the Sunni minority, diplomats say. Shiites form around 60% of the population. “[The Sunnis] feel that Jordan does not believe in Iraq’s eventual recovery, and is setting contingency plans,” said one diplomat. But the region is witnessing a profound shift in the power balance of the Middle East with the resurgence of Shiite supremacy, a development that will determine the politics of the region for decades to come. After decades of suppression across the region, and in pre-war Iraq, Shiite power is gaining more prominence in a process eased by the downfall of the Sunni regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. This process is being bolstered by a new hard line Iranian president seeking to promote political Islam, relying on a weaker Middle East and economic power from unprecedented oil revenues. Meanwhile, the Pentagon is moving ahead with scheduled troop deployments to Iraq next month as the U.S. military struggles to gain control of the escalating violence in Baghdad, which is killing up to 100 people a day. Ethnic violence and rising crime are dashing Iraqi hopes of reviving the 80-year-old, multi-ethnic, religiously mixed state.